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Posts Tagged ‘science’

Science is Only Right 50% of the Time, but There’s Only a 10% Chance of That

April 15th, 2009

2529703600_5ab5b0148a A new study gives all doubters hope.  Or less hope.  We’re not sure.

According to the report, about half of all peer reviewed, scientific research papers published around the world aren’t true. (No, we aren’t going to get into the self-referential questions of whether the paper itself is true, so shut up.)  A variety of problems contribute to the errors, mostly; poor study design, small sample sizes, selective reporting and others.

And while no one factor is causally identified, the combination of errors means that those studies which have found statistically significant results (results that can be shown to be large enough to not be the result of random factors) are, half of the time, not significant.

Studies in ‘hot’ fields–where multiple teams are competing against one another–tend to be even less reliable, and studies with small sample sizes are even worse.

We know what you’re thinking: you knew it all along.  Scientists don’t have any answers, they just pretend like they do. After all, how many times do you hear about a study that says one thing while another a few months later says the opposite?

But, we have to ask, isn’t that kind of the point?  Isn’t research a venture into the unknown? And aren’t wrong conclusions sort of expected?

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Personality Test Today – Be Sure To Study

January 6th, 2009

143084796_8fe04da177_bPersonality tests have been around for a while, and are widely used by businesses, schools and even religious groups.  A few friends of mine and I recently had a conversation about these tests and whether or not they are worth anything.

Some argue that many personality tests cater strongly to the Forer Effect, that tendency of people to view positive, yet vague, assessments of themselves as highly accurate.   This effect is often used by charlatans, astrologers and others of questionable scruples as their way to entice new victims.

The premise is simple: say something flattering about a person and they will believe you to be smart.  If you take it a step further and say the flattery is derived from a test or other diagnostic tool, they’ll believe that the tool is not only accurate, but useful for determining what that person would do, how they should act, etc.

Further confounding this is the evidence.  Many, if not most or even all, personality tests (even the widely used ones) have little reliability or predictive value.  Basically that means that if you take the test more than once, you’ll get a different result, and if you use it to try to predict your behavior, you won’t get it right.

So why take these tests at all? Why take a useless, or at best questionable test, if there is little reason to believe it is worth anything?

Well for one, because they are fun.  We all like to hear nice things about ourselves, and the promise of a test telling us what how great and special we are caters to our ego’s.  But it also allows us a moment of introspection.  Many of us spend the majority of our days in pursuit of something, we have little time to turn our attention towards less immediate tasks.  A little time spent thinking might do us some good.

So here is a basic personality test you can take that might allow you that moment of introspection.  It may prove useful, or it may be worthless.

But no matter how it turns out, it is fun to think about.

(Photo courtesy Thomas Hawk’s Flickr page through Creative Commons license.  Thanks, Thomas Hawk!)

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How To Spot a Fake Smile

December 30th, 2008

Don’t worry, our weekly Testing, Tuesday, Testing post isn’t going to be hard, and it’s not the kind of thing you need to study for. These tests are designed to get

“Designed?” You ask. Yes, but not by us. We rely upon people who actually know what they are talking about. We’ve scoured many of the internets (the blue one and red one mostly) to bring you the finest self-diagnostic/life-hacking/deep-thinking-type-thingy-with-the-attachment-and-the-thing-that-tells-time.

So, this weeks quiz is for everyone who smiles.

But it’s not what you think. We’re going to test whether or not you can detect a fake smile. You know what we’re talking about, don’t you? Have you ever known someone who’s smile just somehow seems odd? Or maybe a person who has the same smile on every picture you’ve ever seen them take?

According to research, a genuine smile is very different than a fake one. But, most people are not very good at telling the difference. How about you?

You can take the test for yourself. In this test, you’ll be shown short videos of several faces as they smile. You only get a very short time to see the smile, and you cannot repeat the video, so watch closely.

We know a relatively simple way to spot the fake smiles, but we’re not going to tell you until after you take the test. (Meaning on a late post.)

So take the test and let us know how you did. How good are you at spotting a fake smile? What are you looking for, specifically? Is it something in the overall demeanor, in the smile, in the face? Is it magic?

Good luck. And don’t worry if you don’t spot the fake ones. Once you learn how to spot the real smile, it is much easier.

(Photo courtesy Misterteacher’s Flickr page through Creative Commons license. Thanks, Misterteacher!)

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3 Reasons To Get Your Friends and Family to Set You Up

December 29th, 2008

Marriage

We were having a discussion several days ago, and the topic of arranged marriages arose, mostly because one of us was recently informed by his parents that they had found him a suitable, albeit potential, mate.  (He’s from India, where arranged marriages are much more common than they are in the United States and other western cultures.)

Everyone else in the group thought the idea was about as appealing as canine airline pilots, but after a brief discussion, several of us began seeing the potential upside of such practices.  Of course, none of us wanted to be set up for marriage, but the process itself seemed insightful.  Here’s why we thought it seemed interesting, and why it would make for a good conversation starter:

1.  Your Family Knows you Like Everyone Else:  We all see ourselves differently than everyone else does, simply because we are the only person living in our own heads.  We experience the world through our perceptions and our thoughts, while everyone else experiences us through only their perceptions.  They don’t have our thoughts to help/taint their observations.  Because of this, your view of yourself is necessarily different than how everyone else views you.  Since finding a partner requires you to be with someone else, you may be less better suited to determine who you are suited for (since you have your thoughts getting in the way) than those who, like your potential mate, can only judge you according to their perceptions.

2.  Your Family and Friends Know Your Strengths: Your family has known you all your life.  (Well, mostly.)  Your friends and coworkers have been around you as an adult.  Taken together, this group of people probably knows a good deal about how you behave, with whom you have rapport and what kind of people you get along with. They are in a good position to know who would be good for you, or what kind of person brings out your best side.

3.  Your Family and Friends Know Your Weaknesses : Conversely, your family and friends are also around you at your worst times. You may pride yourself on your even temper, but if you are temparamental and easy to anger, it is your family and friends who are better suited to judging you objectively.  We all harbor illusions about ourselves, but when someone else looks at us, they do so without the self interest involved.  Yes, your family and friends love you and don’t want to hurt you, but if you ask them to take the time and genuinely think about what kind of person would be good for you, your flaws will come into the picture.

Now, none of this makes us want to be set up for a blind marriage, only meeting the person on our wedding day.  But it does make us think.

How often do we tell ourselves something, or believe something about ourselves that isn’t accurate? When finding a mate, how can we get past these potential roadblocks and find someone that fits our real personality, and not just our ego.

If anything, family and friends telling you what kind of person you appear to them to be is valuable enough.  Forming the decision to marry on that kind of information has got to be at least somewhat helpful.

Doesn’t it?

(Photo courtesy Kumon’s Flickr page, rights granted through Creative Commons.  Thanks, Kumon!)

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Are you your brain?

December 28th, 2008

Every Friday, we’re going to post a brain teaser of sorts. We don’t want to go so far as to call what we do philosophy, but we are going to ask the kinds of questions you usually only ask when under the influence of substances that aren’t exactly legal. (Which, by the way, is the only reason we ever wanted to go to grad school.)

So, consider the following hypothetical situation.

1. Last night, and unbeknownst to you, a group of mad scientists snuck into your bedroom and removed your brain.
2. Fortunately for you, they didn’t leave you hanging. Instead of letting you die, these scientists placed your brain in a vat of super-awesome science liquid that keeps your brain alive. (Ever seen that Steve Martin movie, The Man with Two Brains? It’s kind of like that. Here’s a clip.)
3. Further, in all the places where the nerves of your brain connected with your body, they placed microscopic radio transmitters. These allow your brain to communicate with your body even if it is no longer there. So even though you believe your brain is still there, it is really in a jar somewhere in the dark lair of the evil scientists.

So, here is the question: Where are you?
Though your body is currently where you are, your brain is in the hideout. It could be millions of miles away on a distant planet. And everything you think, feel, see, taste and perceive are going on in that hideout. So are you in the hideout, or are you where you are now?

Here’s another question. What if your body is destroyed? Are you dead? You would no longer be able to perceive anything, but you could still think. You’d still have all your memories, still dream, still have desires.

We’ll let you think about that one for a while. What do you think? What do your friends think?

If this question asks anything, doesn’t it ask what it means when we identify ourselves?

In other words: Who, or what, makes you, you?

(Photo courtesy sirtrentalot’s Flickr page, rights granted through Creative Commons license. Thanks, sirtrentalot!)

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